FanBoardHQ

Northwestern

Northwestern University · 2025 · Big Ten

FanBoardHQ CFP
#49
Efficiency
+3.7
56th FBS
Record
7-6
Conf. record
4-5
Conf. finish
T-10th
of 18
Northwestern Fanboard →

Northwestern went 7-6 and was ranked 49th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 36th-ranked defense carried them, with a 77th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 51% of offensive plays with a 58th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 49% of plays with a 90th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-4
Q2
0-1
Q3
1-1
Q4
5-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 7.0 wins
Strength of Record
53rd
-1.5 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
44th
full season
44th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
34th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.0 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ TulaneAmerican Athletic#26L 323-4.00%-13.0Q2
2vs Western IllinoisOVC-Big SouthW 427+36.5100%-18.1Q4
3vs OregonBig Ten#2L 1434-19.20%-12.3Q1
5vs UCLABig Ten#97W 1714+10.8100%-1.4Q4
6vs ULMSun Belt#128W 427+27.8100%10.4Q4
7@ Penn StateBig Ten#39W 2221-14.4100%16.2Q1
8vs PurdueBig Ten#111W 190+9.0100%15.8Q4
9@ NebraskaBig Ten#52L 2128-2.10%2.7Q3
11@ USCBig Ten#17L 1738-17.20%-1.8Q1
12vs MichiganBig Ten#19L 2224-9.70%10.7Q1
13vs MinnesotaBig Ten#48W 3835+4.4100%6.7Q3
14@ IllinoisBig Ten#18L 1320-11.30%8.7Q1
Postseason
vs Central MichiganMid-American#84W 347+12.1100%22.7Q4

13 played · 7-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Northwestern, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-15.4-1.0+13.5-13-18-12-11016163-21179Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 90th
SR 79thYPP 92ndEPA 91st
RushingEff 58th
SR 58thYPP 80thEPA 46th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 48th
SR 71stYPP 46thEPA 45th
Rush defenseEff 68th
SR 71stYPP 66thEPA 67th
Dropback rate 49%Tempo +1.5 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 65th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 47%1st2nd · Offense: 42%2nd · Defense allowed: 44%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 48%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 46%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 56.0Q1 · Allowed: 35.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 98.0Q2 · Allowed: 96.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 68.0Q3 · Allowed: 58.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 75.0Q4 · Allowed: 61.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledNorthwesternOffenseDefense
Northwestern Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 77th
-1.8
Field position: +1.1Finishing drives: -2.8
Field position +1.1Finishing drives -2.8= -1.8
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 31st · Finishing 86th

Defensive EffRanked 36th
+4.9
Field position: +0.8Finishing drives: +4.1
Field position +0.8Finishing drives +4.1= +4.9
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 40th · Finishing 38th

2.19 points per drive on offense, 1.94 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(202)45% / 55%41%5.2
Q2(210)54% / 46%48%6.1
Q3(201)49% / 51%47%5.7
Q4(213)45% / 55%40%4.9
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(157)10.250%7.3
2nd(117)8.634%4.8
3rd(108)8.141%6.1
4th(15)4.640%3.9
All (397)42%6.1
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(199)9.638%4.1
2nd(151)7.048%5.5
3rd(65)4.254%6.8
4th(14)1.779%2.7
All (429)45%4.9

Northwestern, all games.