FanBoardHQ

Alabama

University of Alabama · 2023 · SEC

FanBoardHQ CFP
#4
Efficiency
+21.8
9th FBS
Record
12-2
Conf. record
9-0
Conf. finish
1st
of 14
Alabama Fanboard →

Alabama went 12-2 and was ranked 4th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 6th-ranked defense carried them, with an 18th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 56% of offensive plays with an 8th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with a 29th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
5-2
Q2
2-0
Q3
1-0
Q4
4-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Expected: 12.0 wins
Strength of Record
3rd
+4.2 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
3rd
full season
3rd
Conf. sched. difficulty
23rd
a 25th-ranked team would win ~4.7 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Middle TennesseeConference USA#105W 567+33.2100%30.0Q4
2vs TexasBig 12#3L 2434+1.10%9.5Q1
3@ South FloridaAmerican Athletic#82W 173+27.8100%7.9Q4
4vs Ole MissSEC#10W 2410+9.2100%27.7Q1
5@ Mississippi StateSEC#76W 4017+23.4100%22.0Q3
6@ Texas A&MSEC#38W 2620+4.8100%21.8Q1
7vs ArkansasSEC#85W 2421+24.7100%0.5Q4
8vs TennesseeSEC#19W 3420+10.8100%24.9Q1
10vs LSUSEC#16W 4228+7.9100%30.7Q1
11@ KentuckySEC#41W 4921+12.0100%35.4Q2
12vs ChattanoogaSouthernW 6610+39.9100%23.2Q4
13@ AuburnSEC#59W 2724+13.4100%11.4Q2
14vs GeorgiaSEC#5W 2724-3.7100%28.6Q1
Postseason
vs MichiganBig Ten#2L 2027-7.40%27.0Q1

14 played · 12-2. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Alabama, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+2.8+17.7+32.6301082822221253135231129Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 29th
SR 44thYPP 27thEPA 26th
RushingEff 8th
SR 16thYPP 26thEPA 8th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 8th
SR 7thYPP 8thEPA 11th
Rush defenseEff 28th
SR 28thYPP 29thEPA 37th
Dropback rate 44%Tempo +1.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 50th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 47%1st · Defense allowed: 35%1st2nd · Offense: 41%2nd · Defense allowed: 36%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 47%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 36%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 107.0Q1 · Allowed: 70.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 129.0Q2 · Allowed: 76.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 112.0Q3 · Allowed: 51.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 103.0Q4 · Allowed: 69.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledAlabamaOffenseDefense
Alabama Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 18th
+8.5
Field position: +2.3Finishing drives: +6.2
Field position +2.3Finishing drives +6.2= +8.5
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 12th · Finishing 21st

Defensive EffRanked 6th
+11.8
Field position: +3.4Finishing drives: +8.4
Field position +3.4Finishing drives +8.4= +11.8
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 1st · Finishing 13th

2.71 points per drive on offense, 1.58 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(214)44% / 56%51%6.7
Q2(237)51% / 49%43%6.4
Q3(200)43% / 57%50%7.6
Q4(222)32% / 68%37%5.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(139)10.248%7.5
2nd(124)9.042%8.2
3rd(104)8.537%6.6
4th(4)11.575%14.8
All (371)43%7.5
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(255)9.847%5.9
2nd(170)7.041%4.8
3rd(74)5.959%6.7
4th(3)1.767%2.0
All (502)47%5.6

Alabama, all games.