FanBoardHQ

Texas

University of Texas at Austin · 2023 · Big 12

FanBoardHQ CFP
#3
Efficiency
+23.4
5th FBS
Record
12-2
Conf. record
9-1
Conf. finish
1st
of 14
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Texas went 12-2 and was ranked 3rd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 4th-ranked defense carried them, with a 14th-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 53% of offensive plays with an 18th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with a 24th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
4-2
Q2
3-0
Q3
1-0
Q4
4-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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14
Expected: 12.0 wins
Strength of Record
4th
+4.1 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
4th
full season
4th
Conf. sched. difficulty
61st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~5.7 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs RiceAmerican Athletic#88W 3710+33.0100%18.0Q4
2@ AlabamaSEC#4W 3424-1.1100%34.8Q1
3vs WyomingMountain West#42W 3110+26.1100%21.8Q4
4@ BaylorBig 12#110W 386+29.1100%27.6Q4
5vs KansasBig 12#18W 4014+12.4100%35.5Q1
6vs OklahomaBig 12#11L 3034+3.40%18.5Q1
8@ HoustonBig 12#93W 3124+25.5100%6.2Q3
9vs BYUBig 12#72W 356+27.8100%21.7Q4
10vs Kansas StateBig 12#14W 3330+3.8100%21.0Q1
11@ TCUBig 12#61W 2926+12.7100%12.5Q2
12@ Iowa StateBig 12#39W 2616+9.9100%21.6Q1
13vs Texas TechBig 12#33W 577+15.4100%37.0Q2
14vs Oklahoma StateBig 12#17W 4921+16.2100%34.1Q2
Postseason
vs WashingtonPac-12#1L 3137+1.70%13.5Q1

14 played · 12-2. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Texas, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

+3.0+18.5+34.01835222836196222112223734Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 18th
SR 12thYPP 20thEPA 33rd
RushingEff 24th
SR 39thYPP 21stEPA 17th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 27th
SR 10thYPP 26thEPA 32nd
Rush defenseEff 1st
SR 2ndYPP 1stEPA 1st
Dropback rate 53%Tempo +3.3 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 55th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 45%1st · Defense allowed: 38%1st2nd · Offense: 49%2nd · Defense allowed: 45%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 43%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 31%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 106.0Q1 · Allowed: 50.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 148.0Q2 · Allowed: 74.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 85.0Q3 · Allowed: 61.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 123.0Q4 · Allowed: 82.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledTexasOffenseDefense
Texas Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 14th
+10.3
Field position: +3.0Finishing drives: +7.3
Field position +3.0Finishing drives +7.3= +10.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 2nd · Finishing 18th

Defensive EffRanked 4th
+12.1
Field position: +2.7Finishing drives: +9.4
Field position +2.7Finishing drives +9.4= +12.1
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 5th · Finishing 8th

2.82 points per drive on offense, 1.53 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 34.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(227)56% / 44%47%7.3
Q2(279)57% / 43%47%6.7
Q3(196)50% / 50%44%6.7
Q4(257)40% / 60%46%6.5
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(207)10.248%7.5
2nd(153)8.854%8.6
3rd(114)8.137%6.9
4th(14)3.450%7.9
All (488)47%7.7
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(225)9.743%5.2
2nd(168)7.145%6.0
3rd(64)5.545%6.9
4th(14)1.671%8.1
All (471)45%5.8

Texas, all games.

Texas Football 2023 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ