FanBoardHQ

Georgia State

Georgia State University · 2022 · Sun Belt

FanBoardHQ CFP
#105
Efficiency
-6.2
88th FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-8th
of 14
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Georgia State went 4-8 and was ranked 105th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 81st-ranked offense was the engine, backed by an 89th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 62% of offensive plays with an 89th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 38% of plays with a 64th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-2
Q3
1-3
Q4
3-3

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
110th
-5.5 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
91st
full season
91st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
91st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.5 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ South CarolinaSEC#29L 1435-14.20%-12.0Q2
2vs North CarolinaACC#37L 2835-7.70%-5.7Q3
3vs CharlotteConference USA#123L 4142+17.60%-26.5Q4
4vs Coastal CarolinaSun Belt#66L 2441+5.20%-26.6Q4
5@ ArmyFBS Independents#84W 3114-3.2100%15.4Q3
6vs Georgia SouthernSun Belt#92W 4133+3.9100%-0.8Q4
8@ Appalachian StateSun Belt#81L 1742-6.40%-22.3Q3
9vs Old DominionSun Belt#117W 3117+8.6100%-0.5Q4
10@ Southern MissSun Belt#82W 4214-1.7100%22.2Q4
11vs ULMSun Belt#112L 2831+12.00%-22.0Q4
12@ James MadisonSun Belt#51L 4042-13.90%7.1Q2
13@ MarshallSun Belt#59L 2328-8.50%-3.1Q3

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Georgia State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-22.7-2.2+18.3-12-6-26-2715-1-22-022-227-3Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 64th
SR 100thYPP 76thEPA 46th
RushingEff 89th
SR 107thYPP 82ndEPA 80th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 53rd
SR 58thYPP 77thEPA 49th
Rush defenseEff 57th
SR 55thYPP 56thEPA 57th
Dropback rate 38%Tempo +7.1 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 86th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 40%1st · Defense allowed: 44%1st2nd · Offense: 40%2nd · Defense allowed: 43%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 44%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 99.0Q1 · Allowed: 59.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 107.0Q2 · Allowed: 95.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 73.0Q3 · Allowed: 105.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 62.0Q4 · Allowed: 79.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledGeorgia StateOffenseDefense
Georgia State Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 81st
-2.6
Field position: -0.6Finishing drives: -2.0
Field position -0.6Finishing drives -2.0= -2.6
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 86th · Finishing 74th

Defensive EffRanked 89th
-3.4
Field position: -2.1Finishing drives: -1.3
Field position -2.1Finishing drives -1.3= -3.4
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 120th · Finishing 79th

2.22 points per drive on offense, 2.20 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(240)35% / 65%45%5.8
Q2(195)42% / 58%39%7.0
Q3(205)36% / 64%41%5.1
Q4(211)39% / 61%38%5.8
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(125)10.043%9.0
2nd(82)9.338%5.1
3rd(100)8.239%6.5
4th(14)6.957%7.6
All (321)41%7.2
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(250)9.938%5.0
2nd(191)7.341%5.4
3rd(76)5.946%5.6
4th(13)2.062%3.1
All (530)41%5.2

Georgia State, all games.