FanBoardHQ

USC

University of Southern California · 2022 · Pac-12

FanBoardHQ CFP
#10
Efficiency
+15.7
15th FBS
Record
11-3
Conf. record
8-2
Conf. finish
T-1st
of 12
USC Fanboard →

USC went 11-3 and was ranked 10th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 2nd-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 90th-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 56% of offensive plays with a 3rd-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with a 17th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
2-3
Q2
2-0
Q3
3-0
Q4
4-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
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Expected: 11.0 wins
Strength of Record
10th
+2.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
41st
full season
41st
Conf. sched. difficulty
80th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.0 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs RiceConference USA#109W 6614+32.9100%27.9Q4
2@ StanfordPac-12#102W 4128+19.4100%11.1Q3
3vs Fresno StateMountain West#41W 4517+12.8100%30.7Q3
4@ Oregon StatePac-12#12W 1714-4.4100%24.8Q1
5vs Arizona StatePac-12#106W 4225+22.9100%10.8Q4
6vs Washington StatePac-12#42W 3014+9.0100%23.7Q2
7@ UtahPac-12#14L 4243-6.90%22.0Q1
9@ ArizonaPac-12#72W 4537+13.8100%11.8Q3
10vs CaliforniaPac-12#85W 4135+18.4100%4.9Q4
11vs ColoradoPac-12#129W 5517+37.5100%6.4Q4
12@ UCLAPac-12#25W 4845+3.2100%12.5Q1
13vs Notre DameFBS Independents#21W 3827+6.7100%23.6Q2
14vs UtahPac-12#14L 2447-4.10%-1.3Q1
Postseason
vs TulaneAmerican Athletic#19L 4546+3.60%8.4Q1

14 played · 11-3. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on USC, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-3.2+12.3+27.82811312511242212561224-1Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 3rd
SR 5thYPP 5thEPA 3rd
RushingEff 17th
SR 8thYPP 22ndEPA 22nd
Defense
Pass defenseEff 85th
SR 104thYPP 91stEPA 67th
Rush defenseEff 132nd
SR 124thYPP 133rdEPA 130th
Dropback rate 56%Tempo +9.4 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 57th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 52%1st · Defense allowed: 51%1st2nd · Offense: 50%2nd · Defense allowed: 45%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 56%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 49%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 128.0Q1 · Allowed: 65.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 165.0Q2 · Allowed: 114.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 125.0Q3 · Allowed: 86.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 138.0Q4 · Allowed: 143.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledUSCOffenseDefense
USC Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 2nd
+19.1
Field position: +0.5Finishing drives: +18.6
Field position +0.5Finishing drives +18.6= +19.1
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 43rd · Finishing 1st

Defensive EffRanked 90th
-3.5
Field position: +3.0Finishing drives: -6.5
Field position +3.0Finishing drives -6.5= -3.5
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 1st · Finishing 115th

3.53 points per drive on offense, 2.63 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(257)58% / 42%54%8.0
Q2(281)63% / 37%53%6.8
Q3(216)51% / 49%53%8.3
Q4(234)47% / 53%49%6.2
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(230)10.154%7.5
2nd(190)7.952%9.4
3rd(115)8.548%8.1
4th(12)6.642%5.8
All (547)52%8.2
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(247)9.750%6.3
2nd(130)6.948%5.7
3rd(53)5.170%6.5
4th(11)1.791%6.2
All (441)53%6.1

USC, all games.